Question:
Folks, In all the arguments about the merits of automatic transmissions versus manual shifting transmissions on this newsgroup, I think the whole issue may be rendered moot by 2010. The reason is simple: automatic transmissions are catching up with manuals and even manual transmissions may dispense with manual clutches by then. Three technological developments are why I say this: 1. Conventional automatic transmissions are getting more and more gear ratios. Today’s cars mostly have four-speed automatics, and five-speed automatics are now common on more expensive cars. Already, transmission designers are aiming for as many as SEVEN forward gear ratios within a few years; this will allow automatics to better stay in the most efficient power band. I mean, the Acura TL and CL are now sporting five-speed automatics; in a few years they may be sporting six-speed automatics, and Honda Civics and Accords may sport five-speed automatics. 2. Continuously-variable transmissions (CVT’s) have become viable for automobiles. Honda has shown it can do it on large scale with the Civic HX CVT coupe, and both Volkswagen and Nissan have developed CVT’s that can handle far more powerful engines. CVT’s have the big advantage of keeping the engine in the most efficient part of its power band as much as possible, which results in manual-like gas mileage with automatic convenience. 3. Manual shifters on the console will soon begin a slow disappearance. Using technology developed originally for Formula One cars, cars are already starting to appear that uses two paddles behind the steering wheel to shift up and down, and the clutch engagement is all done by computer. This setup also allows for full-automatic operation if desired. Yes, the best-known implementation of this on the Ferrari F360 is very expensive, but already this idea has started to filter down to far less expensive cars; the BMW M3 European model, the Alfa Romeo 156, the Mercedes-Benz Smart and the Audi A2 all sport computer-controlled manual transmissions working off a very similar principle. Yes, I’m sure there will be drivers that still want the manual shifter and manual clutching experience, but by 2010 this type of transmission will be overtaken by the transmission technological improvements I mentioned above. — Raymond Chuang Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
Do not expect a manual transmission to disappear in 2010. There will be still be old cars still running in that year. You never know. Smile. I do not like high tech cars since they are way too expensive to fix. They are too complicated to work on yourself. That sucks! Come on! But, a regular 6 speed automatic, not too bad. BUT, not the semi-automatics. That’s more complicated. Good luck!! Galen – Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – > Folks, > In all the arguments about the merits of automatic transmissions versus > manual shifting transmissions on this newsgroup, I think the whole issue may > be rendered moot by 2010. > The reason is simple: automatic transmissions are catching up with manuals > and even manual transmissions may dispense with manual clutches by then. > Three technological developments are why I say this: > 1. Conventional automatic transmissions are getting more and more gear > ratios. Today’s cars mostly have four-speed automatics, and five-speed > automatics are now common on more expensive cars. Already, transmission > designers are aiming for as many as SEVEN forward gear ratios within a few > years; this will allow automatics to better stay in the most efficient power > band. I mean, the Acura TL and CL are now sporting five-speed automatics; in > a few years they may be sporting six-speed automatics, and Honda Civics and > Accords may sport five-speed automatics. > 2. Continuously-variable transmissions (CVT’s) have become viable for > automobiles. Honda has shown it can do it on large scale with the Civic HX > CVT coupe, and both Volkswagen and Nissan have developed CVT’s that can > handle far more powerful engines. CVT’s have the big advantage of keeping > the engine in the most efficient part of its power band as much as possible, > which results in manual-like gas mileage with automatic convenience. > 3. Manual shifters on the console will soon begin a slow disappearance. > Using technology developed originally for Formula One cars, cars are already > starting to appear that uses two paddles behind the steering wheel to shift > up and down, and the clutch engagement is all done by computer. This setup > also allows for full-automatic operation if desired. Yes, the best-known > implementation of this on the Ferrari F360 is very expensive, but already > this idea has started to filter down to far less expensive cars; the BMW M3 > European model, the Alfa Romeo 156, the Mercedes-Benz Smart and the Audi A2 > all sport computer-controlled manual transmissions working off a very > similar principle. > Yes, I’m sure there will be drivers that still want the manual shifter and > manual clutching experience, but by 2010 this type of transmission will be > overtaken by the transmission technological improvements I mentioned above. > — > Raymond Chuang > Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
It’s not the technology that hinders, it’s the cost. In regard to the Civic, it’s very doubtful. With respect to the CVT, it’s a matter of acceptance. 9 years come by very fast. – Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – > Folks, > In all the arguments about the merits of automatic transmissions versus > manual shifting transmissions on this newsgroup, I think the whole issue may > be rendered moot by 2010. > The reason is simple: automatic transmissions are catching up with manuals > and even manual transmissions may dispense with manual clutches by then. > Three technological developments are why I say this: > 1. Conventional automatic transmissions are getting more and more gear > ratios. Today’s cars mostly have four-speed automatics, and five-speed > automatics are now common on more expensive cars. Already, transmission > designers are aiming for as many as SEVEN forward gear ratios within a few > years; this will allow automatics to better stay in the most efficient power > band. I mean, the Acura TL and CL are now sporting five-speed automatics; in > a few years they may be sporting six-speed automatics, and Honda Civics and > Accords may sport five-speed automatics. > 2. Continuously-variable transmissions (CVT’s) have become viable for > automobiles. Honda has shown it can do it on large scale with the Civic HX > CVT coupe, and both Volkswagen and Nissan have developed CVT’s that can > handle far more powerful engines. CVT’s have the big advantage of keeping > the engine in the most efficient part of its power band as much as possible, > which results in manual-like gas mileage with automatic convenience. > 3. Manual shifters on the console will soon begin a slow disappearance. > Using technology developed originally for Formula One cars, cars are already > starting to appear that uses two paddles behind the steering wheel to shift > up and down, and the clutch engagement is all done by computer. This setup > also allows for full-automatic operation if desired. Yes, the best-known > implementation of this on the Ferrari F360 is very expensive, but already > this idea has started to filter down to far less expensive cars; the BMW M3 > European model, the Alfa Romeo 156, the Mercedes-Benz Smart and the Audi A2 > all sport computer-controlled manual transmissions working off a very > similar principle. > Yes, I’m sure there will be drivers that still want the manual shifter and > manual clutching experience, but by 2010 this type of transmission will be > overtaken by the transmission technological improvements I mentioned above. > — > Raymond Chuang > Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
On the Ferrari and M3 it’s a $10k option and the smoothness isn’t up to mainstream standards. I think it’ll be a while before the prices come down. – Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – > I think once the price comes down in the next few years you will see many > "sporty" cars adopt this as standard. Because the controls are all > electronic, they don’t have the extreme complications of the old > semi-automatic systems of the past. Imagine having great control of the > gears in your car like a real manual, but with the full-automatic option > available if you’re driving a lot in city traffic. > — > Raymond Chuang > Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
> On the Ferrari and M3 it’s a $10k option and the smoothness isn’t up to > mainstream standards. I think it’ll be a while before the prices come
down. Mind you, they only build a very small number of cars fitted with the automatic clutch manual akin to the Ferrari F360. Remember, how many Ferrari F360’s and BMW M3’s are built per year? I believe the worldwide production is less than 12,000 cars/per year for both models. But once we get economies of scale, the cost will definitely come way down. — Raymond Chuang Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
As long as people want them they will remain my friend. No automatic transmission will ever have the simplicity, efficiency and low cost to manufacture as a stick shift.
Response:
> I know that the Ferrari transmission works more like a manual > with an automatic clutch, but what I was asking is whether car > companies would actually make transmissions like that for non-exotic > cars, or just take the lazy way out and put Ferrari-like shift > controls on a regular automatic with a torque converter.
In fact, in Europe the Alfa 156 and BMW M3 have the automatic clutch option. These are essentially manual transmissions with automatic clutch controls–no torque converter anywhere in sight! 
I think once the price comes down in the next few years you will see many "sporty" cars adopt this as standard. Because the controls are all electronic, they don’t have the extreme complications of the old semi-automatic systems of the past. Imagine having great control of the gears in your car like a real manual, but with the full-automatic option available if you’re driving a lot in city traffic. — Raymond Chuang Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
>using said system, you can make it a full auto by programming in an engine >speed shift point, and you don’t have to tap the paddles to shift it. the >whole thing is exactly what automatic transmissions should have been, but >were impossible to make without computers. hence, torque coverters. given >10 years, these fancy systems probably will end up on kia-level shitboxes. >steronz
That would be pretty cool, but I’m not sure how long it will take he price to come down. For one thing, the average AT driver wouldn’t want that system even if it were the same price as the torque converter. I know that the F1 cars retain a manual clutch for launching. Will the street cars retain that feature? I want to see a clutchless car which can pass my clutch/throttle finesse test. From a stop, creep the last six inches uphill to my garage door. Piece of cake with my MT cars. Downright scary at 0 mph in the AT minivan I occasionally drive.
Response:
>>> I remember this argument being made in 1973. Lots of car magazine >> pundits were talking about the iminent demise of the stick shift. >> Certainly no new cars would have manaul trannys by 1980. > However, transmission technology back in 1973 is nowhere as sophisticated as > it is now. >You might think that, but there is really very little new >technology today. Just improvements on old ideas.
Very true. > I mean, the metal-belt CVT has proven itself with the success of the Honda > Civic HX CVT coupe. For engines with output up to 130 bhp, that may be the >Volvo had a metal-belt CVT in the late ’60s/early ’70s in the European >market. It never became popular.
I believe it’s owned by Volvo now but are you talking of the DAF system? What a laugh that was. I had a friend who had a DAF van with that – great for traffic but anything else… it was a joke. On the overrun the engine screamed like a banshee as the belt ran all the way back across the cone shafts to the low gear end. > Will there be folks who want the manual shifter and manual clutching > experience? Sure. But they will be outnumbered by 2010 when better > automatics and clutchless manuals achieve parity with real manual > transmissions in terms of efficiency. >There have been various incarnations of "semi-manual" transmissions >over the years. Every time someone introduces this concept again >the marketing types seem to think it will be the best-of-both-worlds >for people who like manuals, but in fact it is the worst-of-both-worlds. >Control, in a manaul transmission car, means clutch control as >well as gear selection.
In fact someone just posted a msg a couple of days ago about the Citroen DSs which had a little stalk on the steering column for shifting gears through an electrically controlled hydraulic system. When was that?… late 50s? >Personally, if I’m driving an automatic I want to just put it >into "D" and forget about it. If I’m driving a manual, I want >to be able to control the whole process, clutch and gear selection >and timing. Hybrids like the Tiptronic seem pointless to me.
Just so you’ll know you’re not alone, I agree. To me the KISS principle is important. Apart from F1, which is a short shit-or-bust race effort anyway where milliseconds saved per gear change can be important, many of the race car drivers don’t like the semi-autos either – no feel to it – and in endurance sports cars the teams don’t like them either – too complex and limp-home ability for the points is usually lost. Rgds, George Macdonald "Just because they’re paranoid doesn’t mean you’re not psychotic" – Who, me??
Response:
>> I remember this argument being made in 1973. Lots of car magazine > pundits were talking about the iminent demise of the stick shift. > Certainly no new cars would have manaul trannys by 1980. > However, transmission technology back in 1973 is nowhere as sophisticated as > it is now.
You might think that, but there is really very little new technology today. Just improvements on old ideas. > I mean, the metal-belt CVT has proven itself with the success of the Honda > Civic HX CVT coupe. For engines with output up to 130 bhp, that may be the
Volvo had a metal-belt CVT in the late ’60s/early ’70s in the European market. It never became popular. > Will there be folks who want the manual shifter and manual clutching > experience? Sure. But they will be outnumbered by 2010 when better > automatics and clutchless manuals achieve parity with real manual > transmissions in terms of efficiency.
There have been various incarnations of "semi-manual" transmissions over the years. Every time someone introduces this concept again the marketing types seem to think it will be the best-of-both-worlds for people who like manuals, but in fact it is the worst-of-both-worlds. Control, in a manaul transmission car, means clutch control as well as gear selection. Personally, if I’m driving an automatic I want to just put it into "D" and forget about it. If I’m driving a manual, I want to be able to control the whole process, clutch and gear selection and timing. Hybrids like the Tiptronic seem pointless to me. — * Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, Computing Center *
Response:
> Auto manufacturers should provide a switch for the driver to decide whether > they want sport mode for late-shifting or an economy mode for > earlier-shifting when they do update the automatics in the future, similar > to the B&M Shift Kits for some of the domestic auto trannys. It’s a simple > $35 device.
In fact, the "F1" transmission on the Ferrari F355/F360 works very similar to the way you described when it runs in full automatic mode. However, this may not be such a popular idea, because on higher-end cars (BMW, Infiniti, Lexus, Mercedes-Benz) their automatics "learn" the way the driver accelerates and tries to do a very smooth acceleration with no perceptible feel when the gear changes. — Raymond Chuang Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
>> But will these just imitate the controls while retaining the torque > converter where performance and fuel economy is lost, or will they > work like manuals with automatic clutches (no torque converter)? >The "F1" transmission on the Ferrari F355/F360 -is- a real manual >transmission with no torque converter.
I know that the Ferrari transmission works more like a manual with an automatic clutch, but what I was asking is whether car companies would actually make transmissions like that for non-exotic cars, or just take the lazy way out and put Ferrari-like shift controls on a regular automatic with a torque converter. A manual-like transmission with automatic clutch and no torque converter and switchable to either manual or automatic shifting would be great. An automatic with a performance and fuel economy losing torque converter with Ferrari-like shift controls wouldn’t be much of an improvement. — Timothy J. Lee Unsolicited bulk or commercial email is not welcome. No warranty of any kind is provided with this message.
Response:
And in the year 2010. people will say.. "However, transmission technology back in 2001 is nowhere as sophisticated as it is now". cheerz.
– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -> I remember this argument being made in 1973. Lots of car magazine > pundits were talking about the iminent demise of the stick shift. > Certainly no new cars would have manaul trannys by 1980. > However, transmission technology back in 1973 is nowhere as sophisticated as > it is now. > I mean, the metal-belt CVT has proven itself with the success of the Honda > Civic HX CVT coupe. For engines with output up to 130 bhp, that may be the > way to go. Volkswagen has developed a CVT that instead of a metal belt it > uses a specially-made metal chain; you’ll see it this fall on the new > version of the A4 in the US market–on a engine rated at 210 bhp. > Will there be folks who want the manual shifter and manual clutching > experience? Sure. But they will be outnumbered by 2010 when better > automatics and clutchless manuals achieve parity with real manual > transmissions in terms of efficiency. > — > Raymond Chuang > Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
Auto manufacturers should provide a switch for the driver to decide whether they want sport mode for late-shifting or an economy mode for earlier-shifting when they do update the automatics in the future, similar to the B&M Shift Kits for some of the domestic auto trannys. It’s a simple $35 device.
– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -> >I think what will cause "real" manual transmissions to become less > popular > >is cheaper implementations of the system pioneered by the Ferrari F360 > with > >its steering wheel "paddles" to shift up and down and no clutch pedal > >anywhere. > But will these just imitate the controls while retaining the torque > converter where performance and fuel economy is lost, or will they > work like manuals with automatic clutches (no torque converter > the current systems in most F1 cars and in the fancy ferraris don’t have a > torque converter. when you tap the upshift/downshift paddle, the computer > engages the clutch, matches RPMs, switches gears, then disengages the > clutch, all very quickly. all the advantages of a manual without room for > driver crapiness. > >That way, people who want real control of the gears on the car can shift > >gears very quickly, and it also has a full automatic mode for people who > >want to drive the car without figuring out how to press down the clutch > and > >shift gears–great for heavy traffic environments. > There are transmissions like the Tiptronic that allow such controls, > but they share with other automatics the torque converter, resulting > in worse performance and fuel economy. > using said system, you can make it a full auto by programming in an engine > speed shift point, and you don’t have to tap the paddles to shift it. the > whole thing is exactly what automatic transmissions should have been, but > were impossible to make without computers. hence, torque coverters. given > 10 years, these fancy systems probably will end up on kia-level shitboxes. > steronz > — > Timothy J. Lee > Unsolicited bulk or commercial email is not welcome. > No warranty of any kind is provided with this message.
Response:
humm… Is it 2010 already ?
– Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -> Folks, > In all the arguments about the merits of automatic transmissions versus > manual shifting transmissions on this newsgroup, I think the whole issue may > be rendered moot by 2010. > The reason is simple: automatic transmissions are catching up with manuals > and even manual transmissions may dispense with manual clutches by then. > Three technological developments are why I say this: > 1. Conventional automatic transmissions are getting more and more gear > ratios. Today’s cars mostly have four-speed automatics, and five-speed > automatics are now common on more expensive cars. Already, transmission > designers are aiming for as many as SEVEN forward gear ratios within a few > years; this will allow automatics to better stay in the most efficient power > band. I mean, the Acura TL and CL are now sporting five-speed automatics; in > a few years they may be sporting six-speed automatics, and Honda Civics and > Accords may sport five-speed automatics. > 2. Continuously-variable transmissions (CVT’s) have become viable for > automobiles. Honda has shown it can do it on large scale with the Civic HX > CVT coupe, and both Volkswagen and Nissan have developed CVT’s that can > handle far more powerful engines. CVT’s have the big advantage of keeping > the engine in the most efficient part of its power band as much as possible, > which results in manual-like gas mileage with automatic convenience. > 3. Manual shifters on the console will soon begin a slow disappearance. > Using technology developed originally for Formula One cars, cars are already > starting to appear that uses two paddles behind the steering wheel to shift > up and down, and the clutch engagement is all done by computer. This setup > also allows for full-automatic operation if desired. Yes, the best-known > implementation of this on the Ferrari F360 is very expensive, but already > this idea has started to filter down to far less expensive cars; the BMW M3 > European model, the Alfa Romeo 156, the Mercedes-Benz Smart and the Audi A2 > all sport computer-controlled manual transmissions working off a very > similar principle. > Yes, I’m sure there will be drivers that still want the manual shifter and > manual clutching experience, but by 2010 this type of transmission will be > overtaken by the transmission technological improvements I mentioned above. > — > Raymond Chuang > Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
> But will these just imitate the controls while retaining the torque > converter where performance and fuel economy is lost, or will they > work like manuals with automatic clutches (no torque converter)?
The "F1" transmission on the Ferrari F355/F360 -is- a real manual transmission with no torque converter. What Ferrari did was to use computerized hydropneumatics to operate the clutch in an automatic fashion without human intervention; this means when you press the paddle behind the steering wheel to change gears the on-board computer commands the hydropneumatics to engage the clutch during the process of changing gears. It does it with such efficiency that it can engage and disengage the clutch many times faster than a human can do with manual clutch pedal pressing. > There are transmissions like the Tiptronic that allow such controls, > but they share with other automatics the torque converter, resulting > in worse performance and fuel economy.
That’s actually a really major compromise for drivers who want to have control of each individual gear on a four or five speed automatic transmission. Most drivers will just leave it in the "D" position and stay with that. — Raymond Chuang Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
> Smaller engine assisted by force induction will be a big part of the future. > These smaller and more fuel efficient engine will behave badly when loaded down > with an automatic transmission. Efficiency will be key and the most efficient > transmission is standard. (not to mention sporting)
Fortunately, automatic transmissions have advanced enough that using one on a small car will no longer bog it down. After all, it works on the Honda Civic HX CVT coupe, the European-market Nissan Micra, and a few other small cars. Besides, now that Volkwagen/Audi has perfected the Multitronic CVT with its metal-chain drive belt, they could easily adapt it for any model that uses the 150 bhp 1.8-liter turbocharged engine. — Raymond Chuang Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
> >I think what will cause "real" manual transmissions to become less popular >is cheaper implementations of the system pioneered by the Ferrari F360 with >its steering wheel "paddles" to shift up and down and no clutch pedal >anywhere. > But will these just imitate the controls while retaining the torque > converter where performance and fuel economy is lost, or will they > work like manuals with automatic clutches (no torque converter
the current systems in most F1 cars and in the fancy ferraris don’t have a torque converter. when you tap the upshift/downshift paddle, the computer engages the clutch, matches RPMs, switches gears, then disengages the clutch, all very quickly. all the advantages of a manual without room for driver crapiness. >That way, people who want real control of the gears on the car can shift >gears very quickly, and it also has a full automatic mode for people who >want to drive the car without figuring out how to press down the clutch and >shift gears–great for heavy traffic environments. > There are transmissions like the Tiptronic that allow such controls, > but they share with other automatics the torque converter, resulting > in worse performance and fuel economy.
using said system, you can make it a full auto by programming in an engine speed shift point, and you don’t have to tap the paddles to shift it. the whole thing is exactly what automatic transmissions should have been, but were impossible to make without computers. hence, torque coverters. given 10 years, these fancy systems probably will end up on kia-level shitboxes. steronz – Hide quoted text — Show quoted text -> — > Timothy J. Lee > Unsolicited bulk or commercial email is not welcome. > No warranty of any kind is provided with this message.
Response:
> OTOH, I want to question whether MTs might be a profitable niche market for > Honda. After all, the S2000 has a transmission not shared with any other model > yet it is not outrageously priced.
I think what will cause "real" manual transmissions to become less popular is cheaper implementations of the system pioneered by the Ferrari F360 with its steering wheel "paddles" to shift up and down and no clutch pedal anywhere. That way, people who want real control of the gears on the car can shift gears very quickly, and it also has a full automatic mode for people who want to drive the car without figuring out how to press down the clutch and shift gears–great for heavy traffic environments. — Raymond Chuang Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
Smaller engine assisted by force induction will be a big part of the future. These smaller and more fuel efficient engine will behave badly when loaded down with an automatic transmission. Efficiency will be key and the most efficient transmission is standard. (not to mention sporting) Pars 98 Hatch – Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – > Folks, > In all the arguments about the merits of automatic transmissions versus > manual shifting transmissions on this newsgroup, I think the whole issue may > be rendered moot by 2010. > The reason is simple: automatic transmissions are catching up with manuals > and even manual transmissions may dispense with manual clutches by then. > Three technological developments are why I say this: > 1. Conventional automatic transmissions are getting more and more gear > ratios. Today’s cars mostly have four-speed automatics, and five-speed > automatics are now common on more expensive cars. Already, transmission > designers are aiming for as many as SEVEN forward gear ratios within a few > years; this will allow automatics to better stay in the most efficient power > band. I mean, the Acura TL and CL are now sporting five-speed automatics; in > a few years they may be sporting six-speed automatics, and Honda Civics and > Accords may sport five-speed automatics. > 2. Continuously-variable transmissions (CVT’s) have become viable for > automobiles. Honda has shown it can do it on large scale with the Civic HX > CVT coupe, and both Volkswagen and Nissan have developed CVT’s that can > handle far more powerful engines. CVT’s have the big advantage of keeping > the engine in the most efficient part of its power band as much as possible, > which results in manual-like gas mileage with automatic convenience. > 3. Manual shifters on the console will soon begin a slow disappearance. > Using technology developed originally for Formula One cars, cars are already > starting to appear that uses two paddles behind the steering wheel to shift > up and down, and the clutch engagement is all done by computer. This setup > also allows for full-automatic operation if desired. Yes, the best-known > implementation of this on the Ferrari F360 is very expensive, but already > this idea has started to filter down to far less expensive cars; the BMW M3 > European model, the Alfa Romeo 156, the Mercedes-Benz Smart and the Audi A2 > all sport computer-controlled manual transmissions working off a very > similar principle. > Yes, I’m sure there will be drivers that still want the manual shifter and > manual clutching experience, but by 2010 this type of transmission will be > overtaken by the transmission technological improvements I mentioned above. > — > Raymond Chuang > Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
>I think what will cause "real" manual transmissions to become less popular >is cheaper implementations of the system pioneered by the Ferrari F360 with >its steering wheel "paddles" to shift up and down and no clutch pedal >anywhere.
But will these just imitate the controls while retaining the torque converter where performance and fuel economy is lost, or will they work like manuals with automatic clutches (no torque converter)? >That way, people who want real control of the gears on the car can shift >gears very quickly, and it also has a full automatic mode for people who >want to drive the car without figuring out how to press down the clutch and >shift gears–great for heavy traffic environments.
There are transmissions like the Tiptronic that allow such controls, but they share with other automatics the torque converter, resulting in worse performance and fuel economy. — Timothy J. Lee Unsolicited bulk or commercial email is not welcome. No warranty of any kind is provided with this message.
Response:
> I remember this argument being made in 1973. Lots of car magazine > pundits were talking about the iminent demise of the stick shift. > Certainly no new cars would have manaul trannys by 1980.
However, transmission technology back in 1973 is nowhere as sophisticated as it is now. I mean, the metal-belt CVT has proven itself with the success of the Honda Civic HX CVT coupe. For engines with output up to 130 bhp, that may be the way to go. Volkswagen has developed a CVT that instead of a metal belt it uses a specially-made metal chain; you’ll see it this fall on the new version of the A4 in the US market–on a engine rated at 210 bhp. Will there be folks who want the manual shifter and manual clutching experience? Sure. But they will be outnumbered by 2010 when better automatics and clutchless manuals achieve parity with real manual transmissions in terms of efficiency. — Raymond Chuang Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
> In all the arguments about the merits of automatic transmissions versus > manual shifting transmissions on this newsgroup, I think the whole issue may > be rendered moot by 2010. > The reason is simple: automatic transmissions are catching up with manuals > and even manual transmissions may dispense with manual clutches by then.
I remember this argument being made in 1973. Lots of car magazine pundits were talking about the iminent demise of the stick shift. Certainly no new cars would have manaul trannys by 1980. — * Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, Computing Center *
Response:
>Here in the US I think it’s lack of demand that will continue to the demise of >the manual transmission. These predictions are always suspect because they are >rarely correct. There will be plenty of manual transmissions sold in 2010, and >I’ll bet on that! >Matt >93 Prelude VTEC (w/ manual tranny!)
I worry that you may be right wrt lack of demand killing MTs. I have yet to drive one of these ATs that is so good I don’t hate it. (Admittedly I don’t get to drive many fancy cars.) I think MTs may disappear on many mainstream models long before AT technology makes me happy. OTOH, I want to question whether MTs might be a profitable niche market for Honda. After all, the S2000 has a transmission not shared with any other model yet it is not outrageously priced.
Response:
Here in the US I think it’s lack of demand that will continue to the demise of the manual transmission. These predictions are always suspect because they are rarely correct. There will be plenty of manual transmissions sold in 2010, and I’ll bet on that! Matt 93 Prelude VTEC (w/ manual tranny!) – Hide quoted text — Show quoted text – > Folks, > In all the arguments about the merits of automatic transmissions versus > manual shifting transmissions on this newsgroup, I think the whole issue may > be rendered moot by 2010. > The reason is simple: automatic transmissions are catching up with manuals > and even manual transmissions may dispense with manual clutches by then. > Three technological developments are why I say this: > 1. Conventional automatic transmissions are getting more and more gear > ratios. Today’s cars mostly have four-speed automatics, and five-speed > automatics are now common on more expensive cars. Already, transmission > designers are aiming for as many as SEVEN forward gear ratios within a few > years; this will allow automatics to better stay in the most efficient power > band. I mean, the Acura TL and CL are now sporting five-speed automatics; in > a few years they may be sporting six-speed automatics, and Honda Civics and > Accords may sport five-speed automatics. > 2. Continuously-variable transmissions (CVT’s) have become viable for > automobiles. Honda has shown it can do it on large scale with the Civic HX > CVT coupe, and both Volkswagen and Nissan have developed CVT’s that can > handle far more powerful engines. CVT’s have the big advantage of keeping > the engine in the most efficient part of its power band as much as possible, > which results in manual-like gas mileage with automatic convenience. > 3. Manual shifters on the console will soon begin a slow disappearance. > Using technology developed originally for Formula One cars, cars are already > starting to appear that uses two paddles behind the steering wheel to shift > up and down, and the clutch engagement is all done by computer. This setup > also allows for full-automatic operation if desired. Yes, the best-known > implementation of this on the Ferrari F360 is very expensive, but already > this idea has started to filter down to far less expensive cars; the BMW M3 > European model, the Alfa Romeo 156, the Mercedes-Benz Smart and the Audi A2 > all sport computer-controlled manual transmissions working off a very > similar principle. > Yes, I’m sure there will be drivers that still want the manual shifter and > manual clutching experience, but by 2010 this type of transmission will be > overtaken by the transmission technological improvements I mentioned above. > — > Raymond Chuang > Mountain View, CA USA
Response:
— Vorsprung durch Technik, Oliver Sprenger http://www.audi80.com — Der Audi 80 im Internet & AudiForum ‘79 Audi 80 GLS Typ 81, 1.6, 55 KW ‘88 Audi 80 Typ 89, 1.8T, 175 KW